In a 17-game season, it’s a near certainty that teams are going to have the same records. That’s just the way things fall in the NFL.
Whether it’s within the division or in the conference wild cards, the NFL has to have a means to break ties without playing an extra game. Baseball could do the now-defunct Game 163, but NFL teams playing an 18th win-and-get-in game is a non-starter given the preparation and rest that is so essential to a game with the physicality of football.
The league has a series of tiebreakers to determine which team will go to the playoffs in the event of a tie record. They also differ between two-team and three-team ties.
Here’s how the NFL breaks ties for both division and wild card scenarios, including what it does in three-team situations.
NFL Division tiebreakers
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Two teams
To break a tie in the division, the NFL starts with the obvious: Head-to-head. So if a team sweeps the season series, that team will advance.
From there, it gets a bit (but not too much) more in the weeds with division record. Then fans have to start schedule-parsing:
- Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
- Best winning percentage in divisional games.
- Best winning percentage against shared opponents.
- Best winning percentage in games played within the conference.
- Strength of victory.
- Strength of schedule in all games
- Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
- Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
- Most net points against shared opponents.
- Most net points in all games.
- Most net touchdowns in all games.
- Coin toss
For anyone who gets frustrated when teams don’t run up the score, this is why. It takes a full four tiebreakers before point differential starts to truly matter. Anything after strength of schedule is pure insanity.
Three or more teams
In three-team tiebreakers, it gets even more involved. Pure head-to-head, of course, is no longer an option, but the NFL does have a round-robin variant of it. As NFL.com notes: “If two clubs remain tied after one-or-more clubs are eliminated during any step, tiebreaker restarts at Step 1 of two-club format. If three clubs remain tied after a fourth club is eliminated during any step, tiebreaker restarts at Step 1 of three-club format.”
- Head-to-head (best winning percentage in games among three teams).
- Best winning percentage in games played within the division.
- Best winning percentage against shared opponents.
- Best winning percentage in games played within the conference.
- Strength of victory.
- Strength of schedule in all games.
- Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
- Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
- Most net points against shared opponents.
- Best net points in all games.
- Best net touchdowns in all games.
- Coin toss
NFL wild card tiebreakers
The NFL wild card has a propensity to get a bit more chaotic. More teams can be involved, and they aren’t all playing a pool of three teams. That means the tiebreakers have to be a bit more elaborate to account for the potential chaos.
MORE: NFL playoff bracket 2022: Updated AFC, NFC seeds
Two teams
- Head-to-head, if applicable.
- Best winning percentage in conference games.
- Best winning percentage against shared opponents, minimum of four.
- Strength of victory.
- Strength of schedule in all games.
- Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
- Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
- Best net points in conference games.
- Best net points in all games.
- Best net touchdowns in all games.
- Coin toss.
Three or more teams
- Apply division tiebreaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tiebreaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
- Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
- Best winning percentage in games played within the conference.
- Best winning percentage against shared opponents, minimum of four.
- Strength of victory.
- Strength of schedule in all games.
- Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
- Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
- Best net points in conference games.
- Best net points in all games.
- Best net touchdowns in all games.
- Coin toss
The NFL uses these tiebreakers to narrow the field down to the necessary seven teams.
What is strength of victory?
On phrase that crops up frequently in these scenarios is “strength of victory.” That term, however, is very vague.
Strength of victory is the predecessor to strength of schedule. It is effectively the strength of schedule of every team both teams have beaten.
I.e. strength of victory is the winning percentage of every team a team has beaten. If that is the same for the teams involved, it moves on to strength of schedule.